Everyday Homicides in the nation Drop Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Statistics

The average number of daily murders monthly in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh administrative statistics. But, security experts have cautioned that homicide numbers might not signal improved national security.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September of last year. This data was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen during these past months is extremely significant,” the President remarked, noting that in November the lowest number of homicides were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Violent cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly military campaigns to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between various agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, security experts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for assessing the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to correctly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it may mask days when there were especially elevated numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean makes spikes of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico is still beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and across the country to express their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to create a story of safety. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.