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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the top if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.